Baserunning Decisions
When you set up a game, you have the option to control the
running and throwing action for your team or to delegate those
decisions to the computer manager.
DMB never asks you when the outcome is certain. If a ball is
lined into the gap for a single and the runner is guaranteed to
score from second, DMB does not ask you whether you want to try to
score on the play. It just announces that there's no play at
home.
However, in cases where the outcome is in doubt and a human
manager is making the decisions, the DMB play-by-play commentary
pauses until you have made your decision. This topic covers some of
the strategy you need to consider.
The runner's chances to take an extra base depend on the batted
ball (distance, direction, and how hard it was hit), the speed of
the runner, and the throwing rating of the outfielder. It's easier
to take an extra base on a single when it's a soft line drive in
the gap than when it's a hard line drive directly toward a fielder.
It's easier to go from second to third when the ball is hit to
right field than when it is hit to left. It's easier to advance on
deep fly balls than shallow ones.
Over the years, we've found that baseball fans tend to
overestimate their chances of taking an extra base on a hit or fly
ball. For some reason, it's a lot more memorable to see a
runner dart around second base and cruise into third than to see
someone put on the brakes and hold at second on a single.
Maybe TV cameras tend to show the runner in motion but keep
the lens elsewhere if the runner pulls up.
It may surprise you to learn that big-league runners go from
first to third on a single to left field only about 10-15% of the
time. That shouldn't come as too much of a surprise because
the throw from left field to third base is quite short. The
advancement rate rises to 30-40% on balls hit to the center fielder
and 40-50% on balls hit to right. These figures cover batted
balls that are hit more or less at the outfielder in question;
the opportunity to advance is greater than that on balls hit
to the gaps and down the lines, but even so, the extra base is not
always a sure thing.
If the runner is going on the pitch (hit and run) or on contact
(two outs), the chances to advance increase significantly, but
they're often less than 100%. Some fans have the impression
that the extra base is automatic in these cases, but big-league
play-by-play data clearly shows that is not the case. Most
runners can safely go from first to third on a hit and run single
to right, but even with a head start, it's tough to make third on a
sharper grounder or line drive to left.
As you would expect, it's much easier to score from second on a
single because the throw home is longer than the throw to third for
most outfielders. (It's about the same distance to both bases
for a right fielder.) Consequently, you'll find that 50-60%
of all runners can score from second on a single, and that rate
rises to more than 80% with two out because the runner can go on
contact. Scoring from second on a hit and run single is an
even better proposition.
Scoring all the way from first on a double is a difficult
proposition, though a lot depends on where the ball is hit.
Balls hit down the lines result in the shortest throws home
and present the biggest challenge to the runner. Only about
25-35% of baserunners make it home from first on those doubles.
The runner's chances improve on doubles hit toward the center
of the diamond, with the advancement rate rising into the 45-65%
range on doubles hit into the gaps. You can add about 20% to
those figures when there are two out and even more if the hit and
run is on, assuming (in the case of the hit and run) the runner
doesn't have to hold up to see if the ball will be caught.
Our review of play-by-play data has also shown that third base
coaches tend to be very conservative. Only about 1% of all
runners who have the opportunity to go from first to third on a
single are thrown out in the attempt. The other 99% are
either safe at third or choose to hold at second in the first
place. In other words, big-league coaches don't like to give
away outs at third base, preferring to hold the runner unless the
advance is almost certain.
The risk/reward trade-off is a little different for plays at the
plate, with the percentage of runners thrown out rising to about
3%. That's still a low rate, but it does show that coaches
are willing to take a few more chances when given the opportunity
to score an extra run right away.
You may decide that you're will to take more chances on the
basepaths, and that may well turn out to be a winning strategy.
But it's not all that easy to take extra bases against
big-league defenses, so don't expect your runners, even your
fastest runners, to be safe every time. Those extra bases are
valuable, but you will pay a price in extra outs if you're
aggressive.
And it's worth repeating that you won't be asked about sending
the runner if the advance is a sure thing. So if you ARE
asked whether you want to try for the extra base, there is at least
a small chance (and maybe a large one) that the runner will be
thrown out, no matter where the ball was hit, who's throwing, and
how fast your runner may be.
Ground balls
On ground balls with the bases loaded, the runners are always
moving and DMB makes the best available play for the defense.
On other ground balls with a runner on third, the offense is
asked whether to send the runner home or hold him at third. If the
runner holds, the defense makes the best available play. If the
runner is sent, the defense is asked whether to throw home. If the
defense chooses not to throw home, the defense makes the best
available play (which may be a double play, a force out at second,
or an out at first).
It's very difficult for runners to score from third on a
cleanly-fielded ball that is hit more or less at an infielder.
In many cases, the runner on third is a sitting duck who is
sent home only to force the defense to make that play instead of
going for a double play.
The runner's chances of scoring increase if the runner is fast,
the ball is hit slowly, or the ball is not hit directly at a
fielder. The chances of scoring decrease if the fielder
making the throw is playing in.
Doubles
Some doubles are deep enough to score a runner from first; some
never score the runner. On the ones in between, the offense is
asked whether to try for home. If the runner is sent, the defense
always throws home, and the batter always stops at second base. The
runner's chances depend on his speed and the strength of the
highlighted fielder's throwing arm.
Singles and fly balls
On many of these plays, the offense must choose whether to send
runners on third or second. If two runners are sent, the defense
chooses the base to throw to. If there is also a runner on first,
the defense may choose not to throw home and keep the runner on
first from trying for second.
If a runner is sent home and the defense throws home, there may
be another strategy option for both sides. If there is a runner on
first, the offense may have him try for second on the throw home.
If the runner goes for second, the defense can choose to cut off
the throw home and try for the man at second. If the third out is
made at second, it is always after the runner has scored from
third, so the run counts.
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