Players: Pitching Ratings
All pitchers should have a full set of ratings in the Pitching
group, but you can leave these ratings alone for non-pitchers. If
you use a non-pitcher as a pitcher, DMB assigns a set of default
ratings to cover those situations.
The pitching ratings are grouped in a box in the lower-left
corner of the player ratings form:
Durability as a starting pitcher or reliever
These ratings (which take values from Excellent to Poor) are
used to determine how quickly a pitcher gets tired.
A player who was not used as a starter in real life does not
have a rating. If he is used as a starter in DMB, he tires more
quickly than a player with a Poor rating.
A player who was not used as a reliever in real life does not
have a relief rating. If he is used in relief, he will have
above-average durability in that role, since his arm is accustomed
to long outings.
There are three ways to determine how durable a pitcher was. The
best way, which can only be used for recent seasons, is to look at
the average number of pitches thrown per appearance. These days,
only the most durable and effective starting pitchers throw an
average of 110 pitches or more. Most are in the 90s.
The second way is to compute the average number of batters faced
per start. As you can see from the following table, which shows the
average number of batters faced per appearance, pitchers are being
used very differently today than they were 100 years ago. Back
then, relief pitchers were used only in emergencies. Today, a
complete game from a starting pitcher is unusual.
Year
|
Starters
|
Relievers
|
Year
|
Starters
|
Relievers
|
1895
|
35
|
17
|
1950
|
29
|
8
|
1900
|
34
|
18
|
1955
|
29
|
7
|
1905
|
34
|
13
|
1960
|
28
|
7
|
1910
|
33
|
12
|
1965
|
28
|
7
|
1915
|
33
|
10
|
1970
|
27
|
6
|
1920
|
32
|
10
|
1975
|
27
|
6
|
1925
|
32
|
9
|
1980
|
26
|
6
|
1930
|
31
|
9
|
1985
|
26
|
6
|
1935
|
31
|
9
|
1990
|
26
|
5
|
1940
|
30
|
8
|
1995
|
26
|
5
|
1945
|
30
|
8
|
2000
|
26
|
5
|
The third way is to look at a pitcher's complete game percentage
compared to the norms for his era.
We consider all three of these pieces of information (when we
have them all) when assigning durability ratings to starting
pitchers. But keep in mind that there are some other factors that
you may also want to consider:
-
bad pitchers don't last long, but it's not necessarily because
they tire out. For a pitcher like this, you may want to assign a
better durability rating than would normally be assigned based on
batters faced per game. On those rare occasions when he's pitching
well, this pitcher might indeed be able to go deep into the late
innings or even throw a complete game.
-
it follows from the previous point that starter durability
rating is most important for good pitchers. It doesn't matter much
if a bad pitcher is allowed to stay in your games too long, but if
a pitcher was very effective but didn't consistently pitch into the
late innings, his starter durability rating is the only thing that
will stop him from completing too many games.
-
a pitcher on a bad team may also be more durable than his
batters faced numbers indicate if he's frequently removed from
games for a pinch hitter
-
today's pitchers throw an average of 3.8 pitches per batter.
Historical data of this type is not available, but we estimate that
pitches per batter have risen over the past 100 years from the a
low of 3.0-3-2 to today's much higher levels.
-
the values in the above table are averages, not maximums. In any
given game, a pitcher can usually face 5-6 more batters than these
tables indicate without getting tired. The values in the table
reflect an average of the pitcher's short outings (the ones where
he got pounded and he left the game before he could get tired) and
his longer ones.
In DMB, as in real life, there is no magic indicator to tell you
when a pitcher is tired. You must make a judgment call based on his
performance in the current game and from his durability rating.
The following tables may help you decide when to remove a
pitcher. Keep in mind that these tables are based on how pitchers
are used today, so you'll need to make adjustments if you're
playing older seasons. And remember that fatigue sets in gradually,
so you may occasionally get away with pushing a pitcher beyond the
normal limits.
For starting pitchers (pitch counts):
Rating
|
One game
|
Five days
|
Ex
|
125-135
|
210-230
|
Vg
|
115-125
|
195-215
|
Av
|
105-115
|
180-200
|
Fr
|
95-105
|
165-185
|
Pr
|
85-95
|
150-170
|
For relief pitchers (pitch counts):
Rating
|
One game
|
Five days
|
Ex
|
60-70
|
100-115
|
Vg
|
45-55
|
80-95
|
Av
|
30-40
|
50-65
|
Fr
|
25-35
|
40-55
|
Pr
|
20-30
|
35-50
|
Holding runners
This rating indicates a pitcher's ability to hold runners close
on steal attempts. An Excellent rating indicates a pitcher against
whom opposing runners attempt to steal with the next base open less
than 5% of the time. Poor pitchers allow attempts almost 30% of the
time.
When we assign hold ratings for modern seasons, we use detailed
studies of play-by-play data to see how often opposing runners
challenged each pitcher and what percentage of those runners were
thrown out. Our studies take pickoffs into account, along with any
steals that were credited to trailing runners on double steals.
Most importantly, we look at the performance of each
pitcher-catcher pair, an approach that helps us determine whether
it's the pitcher or catcher who deserves the credit or blame for
the results.
Unfortunately, there is very little information available for
past seasons. It's only in recent years that stolen bases against
pitchers and catchers were routinely published.
Getting out of a jam
This rating indicates whether the pitcher is especially tough in
late-inning situations with the score very close. Pitchers are
rated as Super, Tough or Normal.
Baseball researchers have tried on a number of occasions to find
batters who consistently perform better in the clutch, but they
have had no success. We're not aware of any such studies for
pitchers, but the small amount of research we've done on this
question has also failed to turn up any evidence to suggest that
pitchers can bear down when they need to.
As a result, the clutch rating system is only a minor factor in
your DMB games. We don't give out a lot of Tough ratings and it's
possible that we may have never given out a Super rating.
Wild pitch rating
This number indicates how often a pitcher throws a wild pitch
when there are runners on base. The wild pitch rating tends to
range from 0 to 60 with an average of 15. Use the formula:
rating = (wild pitches * 1000) / (batters faced *
.43)
For example, if a pitcher threw four wild pitches in a season in
which he faced 1000 batters, his rating is 9. Why .43? Because
about 43% percentage of batters faced occur with runners on base,
though this number rises and falls over time and will vary for
individual pitchers.
Balk rating
This number indicates how frequently a pitcher commits a balk.
It is expressed as a percentage, with 100 indicating a pitcher
who's at the average rate for his league. For example, if a pitcher
faced 952 batters and balked once in a league where balks occurred
at a rate of 8 per 10,000 batters faced, his balk rating would
be:
player: 1 / 952 = .0011
league: 8 / 10000 = .0008
rating: 100 * .0011 / .0008 = 138
Ground ball percentage
This rating is NOT used to determine
the result of any play, so you do not need to fill it in for new
players. If you do fill it in, use a value of 50.
GB pct is similar to a batter's power rating in that it is not
directly used by the game but acts as a window into the event table
for modern season disks.
For modern season disks, DMB uses ground ball
percentage when creating pitching event tables internally. In these
cases, the number accurately reflects the pitcher's ability to
cause ground balls. Together with the number of ground ball double
plays made while this pitcher was in the game, you can use this
rating to assess your chances of getting out of a tough situation
with a ground ball double play.
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