Manager Tendencies
There are twenty tactics for which you can influence how the
computer manager makes its decisions:
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seven govern offensive plays: bunting
for a hit, sacrifice bunting, squeeze bunting, using the hit and
run, stealing, baserunning, and taking pitches.
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four influence how frequently pinch
hitters will be used in various situations: for a pitcher,
for a non-pitcher, for a platoon partner, and in the late innings
of a blowout.
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three affect defensive tactics:
holding runners, guarding the lines, and bringing the infield
in.
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and six help determine how the pitching staff is used: pitching around hitters,
intentionally walking hitters, pitching out, making pickoff throws,
using relief pitchers, and using closers.
The values you can set for each tactic are Most Frequent, More
Frequent, Neutral, Less Frequent, and Least Frequent.
Playing the Percentages
For each of these tactics, Diamond Mind has studied play-by-play
data to analyze the frequency with which they are deployed by
real-life managers. We have examined how those frequencies are
affected by the inning, number of outs, the score, baserunner
locations, the ability of the players involved, and other
factors.
When set to Neutral, the computer
manager attempts to replicate these real life patterns by choosing,
for example, to bunt with only the best bunters in the most
appropriate bunting situations and when the batter wouldn't do
better against this particular pitcher by swinging away. In other
words, if you set everything to Neutral,
the computer manager plays the percentages.
Based on an analysis of thousands of real-life games, the
computer manager knows the odds of winning a game in any situation
(such as when you're the away team and down by a run in the
seventh), and it knows the probability of scoring a certain number
of runs in any situation. So it sometimes plays for a big inning,
and sometimes it plays for one run, whichever gives it the best
chance to win. And it preserves the element of surprise, so you
cannot always predict what the computer manager will do in a
particular situation.
If all of your manager tendencies are set to Neutral, a team with more good base-stealers will
steal more often than a team with fewer good base-stealers. A team
with more good runners will take more extra bases on hits and flies
than a team with fewer good runners. This is equally true of
real-life rosters and draft-league rosters. As a result,
the Neutral setting is the best choice for most
teams, especially teams with which you are not too
familiar.
The other settings are intended to override the computer
manager's natural inclination to play the percentages. If you want
your team to sacrifice bunt less often, despite having many good
bunters, set your Sacrifice bunting tendency to Less Frequent or
Least Frequent. If you want your team to try to pressure your
opponent into making throwing errors, set your Running tendency to
More Frequent or Most Frequent. But be aware that being more
aggressive may mean taking more chances than the percentages would
normally call for.
What the settings mean
Because there are too many variations in game situations and
talent levels among different rosters, there are no precise answers
to the question, "What will the computer manager do if I choose
this setting?" However, you may want to consider the following when
making your choices, then play some games using the computer
manager to see how it handles your team in different
situations:
Bunting. As is the case
with all tendencies, a player's bunt rating is still the most
important factor in determining how often the computer manager asks
a player to bunt, but you can use the three bunting tendencies to
increase or decrease bunt attempts by the players on your team.
The squeeze
bunt tendency is used whenever there's a runner on third
with less than two outs. While it is true that some real-life
managers will use the sacrifice bunt with runners on first or third
in order to move the runner from first to second and holding the
runner at third, the DMB computer manager does not use this tactic.
It prefers not to give up an out when it already has a runner
in scoring position.
The bunt for hit tendency
is used whenever there are two out, the bases are empty, and in a
couple of other situations where runners are on base but
sacrificing makes little sense. For example, with a position
player at the plate, real-life managers rarely call for a sacrifice
with one out and a single runner on either first or
second, so DMB uses the bunt for hit tendency in
those situations. With nobody out, or a pitcher at the plate,
it's a different story, and DMB uses the sacrifice bunt tendency in
those cases.
The sacrifice bunt
tendency is used with nobody out and a runner on first, a runner on
second, or runners on both first and second. With one out,
the sacrifice bunt tendency is used with a pitcher at the plate,
but the bunt for hit tendency is used when a position player is
batting, because real-life position players rarely sacrifice with
one out. More often than not, they're bunting for a hit even
with a runner on base.
Hit and run. When
deciding whether to use the hit and run, the computer manager is
looking primarily at the batter's ability to make contact (and
thereby protect the runner) and the likelihood that he'll hit into
a double play if he does. High strikeout rates discourage the
use of the hit and run, while high rates of ground ball double
plays encourage the use of this tactic. The settings for this
tactic nudge the computer manager in the direction you choose by
adjusting the contact-rate and GDP-rate thresholds it uses to make
these decisions.
Stealing. When set to Neutral, the computer manager is reluctant to attempt
steals with runners owning low Steal
ratings, since they will be thrown out too often. If you want to
further restrict your steal attempts to those players with the
highest steal ratings, choose Less
Frequent or Least Frequent. This
will not stop your best stealers from running, but will restrain
other players.
Running. This tendency governs
how many chances the computer manager will take on the base paths.
When the computer manager makes a running decision, it compares
the chances of gaining the extra base safely to a minimum threshold based on the game situation.
The chances of gaining the extra base are determined by the
nature of the batted ball, whether the runner was going on the
pitch or on contact, the running rating of the runner, and the
throwing rating of the outfielder.
The minimum threshold is based on the game situation and whether
it makes more sense to play for one run (as in the late innings of
a close game) or a big inning. Depending on the number of outs and
where the runners are situated, the value of taking the extra base
can be high or low, as can be the cost of getting thrown out. The
computer manager takes these factors into consideration when
deciding how high the chances of success need to be to justify
taking the risk of getting thrown out.
The Running tendency controls the minimum threshold. If you
choose "less frequent" or "least frequent", the minimum threshold
rises. That causes the computer manager to send the runner only
when the chances of success are higher. If you choose "more
frequent" or "more frequent", the minimum threshold is lowered, and
the computer manager will take more chances.
NOTE: This tendency applies to singles, doubles
and fly balls. It does not affect the decision to send the runner
home from third on a ground ball.
Taking pitches. This
tendency enables you to increase or decrease the likelihood that
your best hitters will have the green
light to swing with three balls and no strikes. It doesn't affect any other counts. And you don't need to
use this tendency to prevent your weaker hitters from swinging at
3-0 pitches because the computer manager never gives them the green
light.
Pinch hitting. In all game
situations other than blowouts, the computer manager uses a pinch
hitter only if he is rated to be better than the scheduled hitter
against the current pitcher. This
assessment takes into account the handedness and the left/right
splits of both the batter and the pitcher.
A "least frequent" setting tells the computer manager to pinch
hit less often; that is, only when the pinch hitter is much better
than the scheduled hitter. A "most frequent" setting tells the
computer manager to pinch hit more aggressively; that is, even when
the pinch hitter is only a little better than the scheduled
hitter.
Pinch hitting in blowouts is a different matter altogether. In
these situations, the goal is not to gain an advantage, it's to
replace the team's better players to reduce their risk of injury.
In blowouts, the computer manager generally replaces a better
player with a weaker one, so the relative strength of the players
is not a concern. Instead, the blowout pinch hitting tendency
influences the computer manager decisions about (a) how big a lead
is needed for the game to be treated as a blowout and (b) how early
in the game it will begin to remove players. In blowout
situations, the "In blowouts" tendency takes precedence over the
other pinch hitting tendencies.
Holding runners. When set to
Neutral, all runners but the worst are
held. Choosing Most Frequent causes all runners to be held.
Choosing Least Frequent causes the first
basemen to play behind runners with low Jump and Steal ratings.
Guard the lines. This setting controls
the inning in which the computer manager begins to think about
guarding the lines:
Tendency
|
Inning
|
Most frequent, more frequent
|
7th
|
Neutral
|
8th
|
Less frequent
|
9th
|
Least frequent
|
never
|
Infield in. This setting controls the
inning in which the computer manager begins looking for
opportunities to bring the infield in:
Tendency
|
Inning
|
Most frequent
|
1st
|
More frequent
|
4th
|
Neutral
|
6th
|
Less frequent
|
7th
|
Least frequent
|
8th
|
This tendency does not affect the decision to bring the infield
in at the corners, which can occur anytime during a game to
discourage a batter from bunting.
Pitching around and Intentional
walk. The computer manager issues intentional walks
with first base open and a dangerous hitter at the plate if the
on-deck hitter is much less of a threat. If the intentional
walk tendency is set to most frequent, the computer manager will
issue a walk with a smaller difference in hitting ability between
the next two hitters. If it is set to least frequent, the
computer manager will issue the walk only if the current hitter is
even more dangerous relative to the on-deck hitter.
If the next hitter is more dangerous than the
on-deck hitter, but not to a large enough degree to convince the
computer manager to issue an intentional walk, the computer manager
might instruct the pitcher to pitch around the next hitter.
The pitching around tendency is very similar to the
intentional walk tendency in that it determines how large the gap
in hitting ability must be to justify the decision to pitch around
a hitter.
Pickoff throws and
pitchouts. Both of these tactics are used to slow down
opposing base stealers. You may find that the "most frequent"
and "more frequent" tendencies are helpful, especially if your
pitcher and catcher are not especially good at shutting down the
running game without a little extra help. Keep in mind,
however, that pitchouts can give the hitter an advantage in the
ball-strike count and too many pickoff throws can lead to errors
and/or wear and tear on the pitcher's arm.
Using relievers, using
closers. The decision to use a reliever is very
complex. Each decision involves so many factors -- including
the inning, score, location of baserunners, quality of the current
pitcher, quality of the potential reliever, left/right matchups,
fatigue, the makeup of the pitching portion of the manager profile,
fatigue, and more -- that it's not possible to lay out simple rules
that tell you exactly how these tendencies will affect the computer
manager's decisions. The basic idea, however, is that they
influence how quickly the computer manager will make the move to
bring in a reliever (in non-save situations) or the closer (in save
situations) when the current pitcher begins to get into
trouble.
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